Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

575
FXUS62 KMLB 201904
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

- Hot and mostly dry conditions persists through Wednesday, with
  near record high temperatures forecast and peak heat indices
  rising to 100-105.

- A weak cold front brings low to medium rain and lightning storm
  chances back into the forecast Thursday and Friday. There is
  potential for strong storms capable of gusty winds, small hail,
  and frequent lightning.

- A low to medium chance for rain and lightning storms continues
  into the weekend and early next week as the front lingers across
  the Florida peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...No significant changes to the forecast. A
pretty healthy cu field has developed with PWATs 1.4-1.6", while
gentle westerly to southwesterly flow slows development of the
east coast sea breeze (in fact it remains pinned to the coast from
Melbourne south), so continuing a low (10-20%) chance of showers
and lightning storms just prior to and along the sea breeze
collision across the eastern half of the peninsula between 5 PM
and 9 PM. Otherwise hot but quiet weather persists. Most climate
sites remain forecast to reach their daily high temperature
records in the M90s, though that has much to do with a set of
surprisingly mild record values for today (compare today`s record
values to the upcoming days in the Climate discussion, especially
for the Orlando Metro Area). Some fog is possible in the usual
spots (fields and such) north of the I-4 corridor towards morning,
but chances for much else are too low for mention in the
forecast.

Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Deep layer
ridging over the Florida peninsula will shift eastward into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This weak cold
front is progged to move slowly across east central Florida on
Thursday, but weakening forcing is resulting in some model
disagreement where it ends up, with the GFS now stalling it across
Central Florida Thursday night while the ECM pushes it barely
into South Florida by Friday morning. Either way, warm conditions
are forecast through the period despite the front. Afternoon highs
will be in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, with temperatures
cooling slightly to the upper 80s to low 90s across the north on
Thursday with the little the front can offer. However,
temperatures will remain above normal across the south on
Thursday, with highs in low to mid 90s as more daytime heating
occurs ahead of the front. West to southwest winds on Wednesday
increase to around 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the
afternoon, which will pin the east coast sea breeze just off the
coast. Winds will become west to northwest Thursday morning before
shifting northeast to east by the afternoon behind the front,
with speeds remaining 10 mph or less.

Most areas will remain dry on Wednesday, but can`t rule out a
shower along the Treasure in the evening. Rain and lightning storm
chances increase into late week as moisture out ahead of and
along the front increases. There is a low to medium (20-50
percent) chance for rain on Thursday along and ahead of the front,
with a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance for lightning storms.
The greatest potential for storms will be across the southern
portion of the CWA where more daytime heating will occur. Some
storms on Thursday may be strong, with forecast soundings showing
a favorable environment with sufficient instability (MUCAPE
1000-2100 J/kg) and shear (SFC-1km shear around 20-40 KT), cooler
temperatures aloft (-8 to -10 C at 500mb), as well as abundant
low-level moisture (PW values between 1.5-2.0"). Thus, the primary
storm threats on Thursday will be gusty winds of 50 mph, small
hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

Friday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The residual
frontal boundary gradually stalls over Central or South Florida
Friday, before eventually lifting back north as a weak warm
front through the weekend. Surface high pressure gradually builds
behind the front through early next week. Rain chances come and go
through the weekend and into next week as moisture lingers across
the area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain
from Cape Canaveral to Orlando southward on Friday, with a low
(20 percent) of lightning storms. While Saturday will be mostly
dry, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain from Orlando
southward on Sunday, and a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of
rain on Monday. Light offshore winds each morning will become
onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Wind speeds will
generally be 10 mph or less. Afternoon highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the
interior each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions
as high pressure over Florida and the local Atlantic waters
remains in control. Light offshore winds shift southeasterly at
10-15 kts in the afternoons and evenings behind the sea breeze,
increasing to around 15 kts over the Gulf Stream in the late
evening and early overnight, then return to light offshore late
overnight through the morning. There is a low (20%) chance for
showers and a lightning storm along the sea breeze collision near
the I-95 corridor in the evening.

Thursday-Saturday...A weak cold front pushes slowly through
Thursday, stalls across Central or South Florida Friday, then
slowly lifts north as weak warm front this weekend. There is a
low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and lightning storms,
especially along the frontal passage where there is potential for
stronger storms as well. Outside of storms, generally favorable
boating conditions. Winds become squirrelly as the front comes and
goes and the daily sea breeze circulation develops, generally
shifting from offshore from the late overnight through the morning
to onshore from the afternoon through the early overnight at 5-10
kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. VCSH included
for MCO/ISM/SFB/DAB/TIX around 0-3Z this evening, due to the
possibility of a few showers along the sea breeze collision.
Coverage is forecast to be low. Southwest flow backing
south/southeast along the coast by mid to late afternoon today
and again on Wednesday. Winds up to 12 kts, especially behind the
sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Unseasonably hot conditions continue across east central Florida
through the rest of the week, impacting afternoon humidity values.
Min RHs across the interior fall between 40-45 percent Wednesday
and Thursday, then a weak front pushing through Thursday decreases
moisture causing min RHs to drop to 30-40 percent Friday. The
front and associated moisture gradually lift back north through
the weekend, but min RHs continue to drop below 40 percent across
portions of the interior through the weekend. Winds Wednesday
westerly to southwesterly at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25,
shifting to the southeast along the coast with the sea breeze
Wednesday. Winds become more squirrelly Thursday onward between
the front coming and going and the daily sea breeze development,
but remain below 10 mph. Some patchy ground fog is possible north
of I-4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Record highs today through Thursday:

DAB 20-May  94 2008
LEE 20-May  95 2017
SFB 20-May  95 2017
MCO 20-May  96 1935
MLB 20-May  95 1980
VRB 20-May  93 2020
FPR 20-May  96 1980

DAB 21-May  97 1998
LEE 21-May  97 1962
SFB 21-May 100 1962
MCO 21-May  98 1908
MLB 21-May  96 1998
VRB 21-May  95 2015
FPR 21-May  97 2008

DAB 22-May  97 1962
LEE 22-May  98 1962
SFB 22-May  99 1998
MCO 22-May  97 1962
MLB 22-May  95 1998
VRB 22-May  94 1978
FPR 22-May  95 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  94  72  87 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  73  95  75  90 /  20  10  10  40
MLB  73  93  74  89 /  20  10  10  40
VRB  73  94  72  90 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  73  93  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
SFB  73  96  74  91 /  20  10  10  30
ORL  74  95  75  91 /  20  10  10  40
FPR  72  94  72  91 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy